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Summarized by durumis AI
- 'False consensus effect' refers to the phenomenon where people believe that their tastes are similar to other people's tastes, and this can be seen in baseball drafts.
- In particular, scouts are convinced that other teams will like the player they like, but in reality, the probability that the player drafted earlier will perform better is only 52%.
- Therefore, when making important decisions, one should be aware of the 'false consensus effect' and be wary of excessive confidence in one's own choices.
An interesting concept is the 'illusory correlation effect'.
"Basically, people believe that other people also have tastes
similar to their own."
In a question to students, what percentage of students in this classroom have iPhones?
Most of the students who use iPhones answered that they have most of them, and
students who did not use iPhones answered that iPhone use was exceptional.
And this theory is extended to the concept of baseball
It is said to apply to scouts as well.
When you fall in love with a particular player, you 'believe' that other teams will do the same.
In fact, the player drafted earlier has only a 52% chance of performing better than the player drafted later.
It was very interesting in the baseball section.
I don't know much about the draft, but I know what it is.
The players selected in the first round are great prospects,
The performance they show in actual professional teams is
It was very different from what I expected.
I learned baseball only through the strongest baseball, so
Those young kids who are good at it
Don't you think they'll eat the pros?
I learned this year that the pro world is even more harsh.
I also saw a player picked later perform better than a player picked earlier.
At that moment, I felt that 'certainty' in the choice was risky.
When I was 'certain' about something,
I don't need to overvalue it over alternatives.
Because I unconsciously chose it,
I tend to evaluate it more generously.
At the moment of important choices,
Remember this effect
I should refrain from betting too much.
