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Understanding the Risks of x3 Leverage Investing: Volatility Decay
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Summarized by durumis AI
- The program, which had been idle since October 6, 2022, resumed operation on November 13, 2022, prompting reflection on volatility decay and sparking contemplation on whether to continue with 3x leverage investing. This post shares the process of pondering this question.
- Despite losing more than half of the current investment, the author is proceeding with the investment within a range where losing all the investment is acceptable. The author is experimenting with automated investing using grid trading, investing in US stock ETFs with 3x leverage.
- The author continues to invest in 2022, accepting the risks of US stocks no longer reaching their peak, persistent negative factors such as inflation, war, and raw materials, delisting of investment targets, and program errors.
Hello! The program that had been stopped since October 6, 2022, resumed yesterday. 👏👏👏
It was a long time, so I'm happy, but considering that it might stop again, I can just let it go. Anyway, it's working again and I made a small profit, and I'm slightly expecting a Santa rally, so I'll start this post to remember this moment.
The stock price keeps going up and down, but why is it so complicated?!
Today's topic is volatility decay. It means that the volatility causes a decay, which sounds extremely negative. I learned the term volatility decay while investing in leveraged investments. This refers to the loss that occurs in response to the fluctuation (1x) of the asset on which the leveraged investment is based. That's why the term volatility decay doesn't seem to be used for 1x investment. From a 1x investment standpoint, volatility is just something that happens, and 2-3x leverages, which follow it, seem to use the term decay to mean that a risk of decay has occurred as volatility has increased. So, those who oppose leveraged investments argue that it is an investment that should never be made, citing volatility decay as an example.
To summarize, holding for a long time results in losses from the simple fluctuation, and if it is 23x, it leads to even greater losses. In this situation, 1x would also have lost money, but since 23x lost even more, I completely agree with the argument that it should not be done. As the price of the invested stock has not broken through its previous high for quite a long time, if we take a year as a measure, it is likely to be consolidated at a lower level than the previous high, so there is a high probability that losses will occur.
These are the questions in my heart that I want to find answers to.
- Should I invest in a 1x product?!
- Leveraged investment shouldn't be invested in, but are the investment products created as bait products?! Targeting me?!
- It seems like 5x products are coming out these days, are they products designed to make me go bankrupt?!
It's a real problem that needs a lot of thought. Most of you who decided to invest in 3x leverage with the memories you have now would never invest in 3x leverage again, but I think I had the following thoughts at the time.
- I am someone who can't predict either the big or the small movements of the market.
(If I buy, it goes down, and if I sell, it goes up. Is this really science?! Am I the only one?!) - If I decide it's a bull market, I'll invest in 3x leverage, and if it breaks, I'll invest in 1x,
or I can't maximize my profits by timing, such as holding dollars.
(It moves strangely in the opposite direction of my buying and selling, and I can never predict it.) - I don't have enough money to follow the investments of experts or entrust them with investments, and
considering fees, I need to make more profit.
(I thought it was better to invest and take responsibility myself. Sigh)
I tried to objectify myself, but I can't help but feel my self-esteem sinking. It's strangely negative.
I can't do it. Sigh
At least I want to praise myself for recording my current thoughts and attitude. And I've had a change of heart like a frog.
- I'm stuck with this and that, shouldn't I just not invest?!
- Can I become rich by not investing and living the life of an ordinary office worker?!
My mind was clear that I needed to get rich. There are definitely other ways to get rich, and just as I had made up my mind that I should definitely do an automated business, I made up my mind that I should have a clear standard for investment. So, I set some internal standards. (No matter what anyone says, I'm going to invest in stocks! I'm going to blow my own money! Woo hoo! 🎵)
I invest only within a range where it's okay even if my investment goes to zero.
I invest in what I currently know to be the most likely way to become rich.
It would be nice to become rich quickly through the chosen investment method, but I need to be able to
endure the process for at least 10 years.
It was a concern about how much I should invest and what I should invest in with my current financial situation. As I mentioned earlier, I considered automated business more important, so my study and time investment for investment was limited. As a result, I think I was able to quickly set up execution standards for investment. Here's what I decided to do to implement the above standards.
- I invest the principal I can invest in a US stock ETF 3x leveraged product. (Maximum profit potential, fee savings)
- I use the grid trading method as a trading method to make short-term profits. (Short-term trading, profit
realization, compound profit investment)
Please refer to the following for a separate summary of my experiences and thoughts on grid trading!! - It must be automated to avoid intervention in the investment. (Time saving, mental protection)
The worst-case scenario is when the premises I stated earlier are wrong.
- US stocks are no longer the best.
- Bad news such as inflation, war, and raw materials are not being resolved but are accumulating.
- Delisting of the invested stock ㅋㅋ (I feel these days that this can definitely happen.)
- The automated program has an error and I lost all my money. (Cutting losses, eating into principal due to fees)
To what extent are the premises wrong?! ㅋㅋ That's why my account is in this state. Most people would say this when they see my current stock account.
It's good to see a 30% daily gain because it's x3, but the return on investment is really gloomy. ㅋㅋ
It's over. 100% over. ㅋㅋ
Over half of my investment money has disappeared. Where did it go?
That's right. If I dump it all now, it's just over. ㅋㅋ The 2022 investment has been holding on for a longer period than expected, against my will (?). And if I hold it for a long time and it goes up?! I sell it with just 1% profit (0.5% after fees ㅋㅋ). But I'm not good at this, so I need to create more sources of income while aiming for this kind of automated investment.
I have these thoughts, but what are your thoughts around November 11, 2022? I'd be happy if you share your opinions or give me some encouragement. I really need encouragement these days. ㅋㅋ
I hope this year-end is meaningful for you and me. 🙏